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  5. Playoff Picture

NFL Playoff Picture

The Week 2 playoff picture combines the league's current conference seeding with Kalshi's market-implied chance that each team makes the postseason.
Regular season · Week 3Updated today at 9:16 PM ET
Seeding: Seeds are the league's own conference seeding through Week 2: division leaders hold 1–4 and the next three conference records hold 5–7, tiebroken by the NFL's own procedures. Kalshi prices are shown beside the field, not used to order it.
Current field

2026 NFL Playoff Picture After Week 2

The seven-team cutoff shows who is currently in the field. Every remaining team stays visible below it.

AFC playoff picture

16 teams · 7 playoff positions
Current AFC playoff seeding, with each team's 2026 record, division position and playoff status. The top 7 positions are the playoff field.
Pos.Team2026 recordDivisionStatus
1Kansas City Chiefs2-01st · AFC WestDivision leader
2Buffalo Bills2-01st · AFC EastDivision leader
3Cincinnati Bengals2-01st · AFC NorthDivision leader
4Jacksonville Jaguars1-11st · AFC SouthDivision leader
5Las Vegas Raiders2-02nd · AFC WestWild card
6New England Patriots1-12nd · AFC EastWild card
7Baltimore Ravens1-12nd · AFC NorthWild card
8New York Jets1-13rd · AFC EastFirst team out
9Denver Broncos1-13rd · AFC WestOutside playoff field
10Pittsburgh Steelers1-13rd · AFC NorthOutside playoff field
11Cleveland Browns1-14th · AFC NorthOutside playoff field
12Miami Dolphins0-24th · AFC EastOutside playoff field
13Tennessee Titans0-22nd · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
14Los Angeles Chargers0-24th · AFC WestOutside playoff field
15Houston Texans0-23rd · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
16Indianapolis Colts0-24th · AFC SouthOutside playoff field
  • Playoff field
  • First team out
  • Outside field

NFC playoff picture

16 teams · 7 playoff positions
Current NFC playoff seeding, with each team's 2026 record, division position and playoff status. The top 7 positions are the playoff field.
Pos.Team2026 recordDivisionStatus
1Minnesota Vikings2-01st · NFC NorthDivision leader
2Seattle Seahawks2-01st · NFC WestDivision leader
3Philadelphia Eagles2-01st · NFC EastDivision leader
4Carolina Panthers1-11st · NFC SouthDivision leader
5San Francisco 49ers2-02nd · NFC WestWild card
6Detroit Lions1-12nd · NFC NorthWild card
7Chicago Bears1-13rd · NFC NorthWild card
8Los Angeles Rams1-13rd · NFC WestFirst team out
9New York Giants1-12nd · NFC EastOutside playoff field
10Dallas Cowboys1-13rd · NFC EastOutside playoff field
11New Orleans Saints1-12nd · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
12Arizona Cardinals1-14th · NFC WestOutside playoff field
13Atlanta Falcons1-23rd · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
14Green Bay Packers1-24th · NFC NorthOutside playoff field
15Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-24th · NFC SouthOutside playoff field
16Washington Commanders0-24th · NFC EastOutside playoff field
  • Playoff field
  • First team out
  • Outside field
Start vs. the market

Does the market believe the start?

Each team’s win rate so far against the win rate Kalshi’s win-total market implies for its remaining games. Up and to the left: a slow start the market expects to turn around. Down and to the right: a fast start it expects to fade.
The market believes+21 ptsThe Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-2, but the market prices them to win 21% of their games from here
The market doubts−99 ptsThe Philadelphia Eagles are 2-0, but the market prices them to win 1% of their games from here
Best projected finish10.0 winsWhat the win-total market expects the Chicago Bears, 1-1 so far, to finish with
2026 season · As of Nov 8, 2026

NFL records so far vs. the market’s view of the rest

Market’s win rate for the games left →
Turnaround comingSlow start, strong finish
The real dealFast start, strong finish
More of the sameSlow start, weak finish
Regression comingFast start, weak finish
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0%20%40%60%80%100%BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers0-2 so far (0%)21% expected from here3.1 projected wins7% to make the playoffsPackersGreen Bay Packers1-2 so far (33%)51% expected from here8.2 projected wins40% to make the playoffsTexansHouston Texans0-2 so far (0%)14% expected from here2.1 projected wins33% to make the playoffsIndianapolis Colts0-2 so far (0%)14% expected from here2.1 projected wins3% to make the playoffsWashington Commanders0-2 so far (0%)14% expected from here2.1 projected wins18% to make the playoffsChicago Bears1-1 so far (50%)60% expected from here10.0 projected wins55% to make the playoffsMiami Dolphins0-2 so far (0%)7% expected from here1.1 projected wins3% to make the playoffsTennessee Titans0-2 so far (0%)7% expected from here1.1 projected wins2% to make the playoffsLos Angeles Chargers0-2 so far (0%)1% expected from here0.1 projected wins3% to make the playoffsCleveland Browns1-1 so far (50%)45% expected from here7.7 projected wins31% to make the playoffsDenver Broncos1-1 so far (50%)41% expected from here7.2 projected wins63% to make the playoffsDetroit Lions1-1 so far (50%)34% expected from here6.1 projected wins4% to make the playoffsJacksonville Jaguars1-1 so far (50%)34% expected from here6.1 projected wins70% to make the playoffsPittsburgh Steelers1-1 so far (50%)34% expected from here6.1 projected wins35% to make the playoffsAtlanta Falcons1-2 so far (33%)16% expected from here3.2 projected wins24% to make the playoffsLos Angeles Rams1-1 so far (50%)27% expected from here5.1 projected wins72% to make the playoffsNew England Patriots1-1 so far (50%)27% expected from here5.1 projected wins44% to make the playoffsNew York Giants1-1 so far (50%)27% expected from here5.1 projected wins31% to make the playoffsBaltimore Ravens1-1 so far (50%)21% expected from here4.2 projected wins4% to make the playoffsArizona Cardinals1-1 so far (50%)15% expected from here3.2 projected wins3% to make the playoffsCarolina Panthers1-1 so far (50%)15% expected from here3.2 projected wins50% to make the playoffsDallas Cowboys1-1 so far (50%)15% expected from here3.2 projected wins45% to make the playoffsNew Orleans Saints1-1 so far (50%)14% expected from here3.1 projected wins49% to make the playoffsNew York Jets1-1 so far (50%)7% expected from here2.1 projected wins3% to make the playoffsBuffalo Bills2-0 so far (100%)28% expected from here6.2 projected wins91% to make the playoffsCincinnati Bengals2-0 so far (100%)28% expected from here6.2 projected wins66% to make the playoffsKansas City Chiefs2-0 so far (100%)27% expected from here6.1 projected wins92% to make the playoffsMinnesota Vikings2-0 so far (100%)27% expected from here6.1 projected wins79% to make the playoffsSan Francisco 49ers2-0 so far (100%)27% expected from here6.1 projected wins91% to make the playoffsRaidersLas Vegas Raiders2-0 so far (100%)14% expected from here4.1 projected wins24% to make the playoffsSeahawksSeattle Seahawks2-0 so far (100%)14% expected from here4.1 projected wins60% to make the playoffsEaglesPhiladelphia Eagles2-0 so far (100%)1% expected from here2.1 projected wins19% to make the playoffs
Win rate so far →
Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →
Dashed lines are league medians: 21% expected from here, 50% won so far.
The market believesTeams priced to win more of their remaining games than they have so far
  1. 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers21% from here0-2 so far · 7% playoffsYes 96¢
  2. 2Green Bay Packers51% from here1-2 so far · 40% playoffsYes 96¢
  3. 3Houston Texans14% from here0-2 so far · 33% playoffsYes 96¢
  4. 4Indianapolis Colts14% from here0-2 so far · 3% playoffsYes 96¢
  5. 5Washington Commanders14% from here0-2 so far · 18% playoffsYes 34¢
The market doubtsTeams priced to win fewer of their remaining games than they have so far
  1. 1Philadelphia Eagles1% from here2-0 so far · 19% playoffsYes 96¢
  2. 2Seattle Seahawks14% from here2-0 so far · 60% playoffsYes 96¢
  3. 3Las Vegas Raiders14% from here2-0 so far · 24% playoffsYes 97¢
  4. 4San Francisco 49ers27% from here2-0 so far · 91% playoffsYes 96¢
  5. 5Minnesota Vikings27% from here2-0 so far · 79% playoffsYes 96¢
Kalshi market view

Market-implied playoff odds

See the latest make-the-playoffs prices and seven-day movement. Expand any row to open that team's Kalshi markets.

AFC markets

Kalshi make-the-playoffs prices for every AFC team, with the seven-day move and the markets behind each number.
Team2026 recordPlayoff odds7d changeSourceTrade
Kansas City Chiefs2-092%0ppTrade
Buffalo Bills2-091%0ppTrade
Cincinnati Bengals2-066%0ppTrade
Jacksonville Jaguars1-170%0ppTrade
Las Vegas Raiders2-024%0ppTrade
New England Patriots1-144%0ppTrade
Baltimore Ravens1-14%0ppTrade
New York Jets1-13%−6ppTrade
Denver Broncos1-163%0ppTrade
Pittsburgh Steelers1-135%0ppTrade
Cleveland Browns1-131%0ppTrade
Miami Dolphins0-23%0ppTrade
Tennessee Titans0-22%0ppTrade
Los Angeles Chargers0-23%0ppTrade
Houston Texans0-233%0ppTrade
Indianapolis Colts0-23%−27ppTrade

NFC markets

Kalshi make-the-playoffs prices for every NFC team, with the seven-day move and the markets behind each number.
Team2026 recordPlayoff odds7d changeSourceTrade
Minnesota Vikings2-079%0ppTrade
Seattle Seahawks2-060%0ppTrade
Philadelphia Eagles2-019%0ppTrade
Carolina Panthers1-150%0ppTrade
San Francisco 49ers2-091%0ppTrade
Detroit Lions1-14%0ppTrade
Chicago Bears1-155%0ppTrade
Los Angeles Rams1-172%0ppTrade
New York Giants1-131%0ppTrade
Dallas Cowboys1-145%0ppTrade
New Orleans Saints1-149%0ppTrade
Arizona Cardinals1-13%0ppTrade
Atlanta Falcons1-224%0ppTrade
Green Bay Packers1-240%0ppTrade
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-27%0ppTrade
Washington Commanders0-218%0ppTrade
How it works

How to read the NFL playoff picture

Seven teams from each conference make the NFL playoffs: four division winners and three wild cards. The highest-seeded team receives a first-round bye, while seeds two through seven form the opening-round matchups. The yellow line after seed seven separates the playoff field from the rest of the conference.Once games have been played the field is the league's own seeding rather than a forecast: division leaders hold the top four seeds, the next three conference records hold the wild cards, and ties are broken by the NFL's own procedures. Kalshi's prices sit beside that field rather than deciding it.Prices can move before the standings do. The field and the Kalshi probabilities are shown separately so a team's current position and its chance of actually making the playoffs can be compared side by side.The start chart reads Kalshi’s win-total ladder for each team — a contract for every number of wins from one to seventeen. The prices add up to the wins the market expects over the whole season, and the rungs a team has already reached have paid out, so that total includes its record. Taking away the wins already in hand leaves the wins the market expects from the games still to play, and dividing by those games gives the win rate on the chart. Early in the season a single result swings a team’s rate so far by twenty points or more, which is exactly when the market and the record disagree most.
FAQ

NFL playoff picture questions

How many NFL teams make the playoffs?
Fourteen teams make the postseason: seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. Each conference sends four division winners and three wild-card teams. The top seed in each conference receives a first-round bye.
How are NFL playoff seeds determined?
Division winners take seeds one through four, ordered by record and the NFL's tiebreaking procedures. The next three best conference records receive wild-card seeds five through seven. Kalshi prices do not change official seeding — the field above is the league’s own order, with the market’s probabilities beside it.
What does the preseason playoff picture show?
Before current-season standings exist, Kalshi's division-title prices identify the projected division winners, market-implied win totals order those four teams, and make-the-playoffs prices select and rank the projected wild cards. Every remaining team is listed in market order below the cutoff.
What does 'first team out' mean?
The first team out is the highest-ranked team immediately below the last playoff position. On this page it is the next team in the league’s conference seeding; where the field is projected instead, it is the next team in the market-implied order.
How often do Kalshi playoff odds update?
The odds on this page refresh as the underlying Kalshi market prices change, and the field follows the league's standings as games settle. The latest update time appears at the top of the page — currently Sunday, Nov 8, 2026 · 9:16 PM ET.
Which NFL team does the market expect to turn its season around?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are 0-2, winning 0% of their games, but Kalshi's win-total market prices them to win about 21% of the games they have left, for 3.1 wins this season.
Related NFL pages

Continue exploring the playoff race

The markets this field is read from, and the rest of Kalshi's NFL coverage.
NFL power rankingsNFL playoff oddsSuper Bowl oddsNFL standingsNFL matchupsAll NFL marketsNFL Playoff Qualifiers
Team hubs

Every team in the playoff picture

Explore the latest markets and forecasts for all 32 teams.
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Baltimore Ravens
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Chicago Bears
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Denver Broncos
  • Detroit Lions
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Saints
  • New York Giants
  • New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Washington Commanders
NFL playoff markets

Will this team make the playoffs?

Buy Yes if you think the team qualifies. Buy No if you think it won't.
  • Kansas City Chiefs92%
    Yes 96¢No 97¢
  • Buffalo Bills91%
    Yes 96¢No 97¢
  • San Francisco 49ers91%
    Yes 96¢No 97¢
  • Minnesota Vikings79%
    Yes 96¢No 97¢
  • Los Angeles Rams72%
    Yes 96¢No 97¢
See all 32 teams