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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
2026 Midterms
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
Key races
All
Texas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Talarico
64%
Paxton
36%
Projected margin
D +1.8
Maine Senate winner?
Nov 3
Jackson
64%
Collins
36%
Projected margin
D +1.6
Michigan Senate winner?
Nov 3
El-Sayed
68%
Rogers
32%
Projected margin
D +2.5
Ohio Senate winner?
Nov 3
Brown
68%
Husted
32%
Projected margin
D +3.0
Iowa Senate winner?
Nov 3
Turek
41%
Hinson
59%
Projected margin
R +1.1
Texas Governor winner?
Nov 3
Hinojosa
27%
Abbott
73%
Projected margin
R +3.6
Kansas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Hamilton
40%
Marshall
60%
Projected margin
R +1.5
Georgia Governor winner?
Nov 3
Bottoms
59%
Jackson
41%
Projected margin
D +1.5
Nevada Governor winner?
Nov 3
Ford
66%
Lombardo
34%
Projected margin
D +2.1
MT-01 House winner?
Nov 3
Forstag
46%
Flint
54%
Projected margin
R +0.7
Vermont Governor winner?
Nov 3
Janoo
25%
Scott
75%
FL-14 House winner?
Nov 3
Castor
68%
Beltran
32%
Senate
House
Governor
States
Balance of Power
Live
Kalshi Midterms Forecast
Democrats
have a
68%
chance
to control the Senate
11 days to Election
49
Democrats
Dem seats
Republicans
Rep seats
50
47 current
Democratic seats
53 current
Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe Democratic
Total 8
D
Colorado
94%
D
Delaware
94%
D
Georgia
98%
D
Massachusetts
94%
D
North Carolina
95%
D
Oregon
95%
D
Virginia
95%
D
West Virginia
95%
Likely Democratic
Total 2
D
Minnesota
88%
D
New Hampshire
83%
Lean Democratic
Total 5
D
Alaska
73%
D
Maine
65%
D
Michigan
69%
D
Ohio
69%
D
Texas
66%
Toss-up
Total 1
Dem 0
Rep 1
R
Iowa
59%
Lean Republican
Total 3
R
Alabama
68%
R
Kansas
62%
R
Nebraska
74%
Likely Republican
Total 3
R
Florida
89%
R
Louisiana
86%
R
South Carolina
82%
Safe Republican
Total 13
R
Arkansas
99%
R
Idaho
97%
R
Illinois
94%
R
Kentucky
99%
R
Mississippi
99%
R
Montana
91%
R
New Jersey
98%
R
New Mexico
94%
R
Oklahoma
98%
R
Rhode Island
97%
R
South Dakota
96%
R
Tennessee
92%
R
Wyoming
97%
Rating changes · Past month
More markets
161 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
Mayor
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
$105,187,097 vol
Nithya Raman
1.76
x
55
%
Karen Bass
2.05
x
47
%
Senate
Blue wave this year?
$2,257,031 vol
Yes
1.15
x
84
%
No
5.90
x
16
%
Attorney General
New York Attorney General winner?
$842,153 vol
Letitia James
1.08
x
92
%
Saritha Komatireddy
13.4
x
7
%
Senate
Blue tsunami this year?
$845,218 vol
Yes
1.73
x
53
%
No
2.05
x
47
%
US Elections
Iowa State House winner?
$45,954 vol
Republican party
1.13
x
88
%
Democratic party
8.56
x
11
%
Senate
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
$161,330 vol
Yes
3.80
x
25
%
No
1.29
x
75
%
US Elections
Minnesota State House winner?
$31,664 vol
Democratic party
1.14
x
89
%
Republican party
10.4
x
8
%
Attorney General
Minnesota Attorney General winner?
$152,070 vol
Keith Ellison
1.28
x
77
%
Ronald J. Schutz
4.13
x
22
%
Attorney General
Florida Attorney General winner?
$30,106 vol
James Uthmeier
1.22
x
81
%
José Javier Rodriguez
4.98
x
19
%
US Elections
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
$1,732,592 vol
Yes
4.13
x
22
%
No
1.26
x
78
%
US Elections
North Carolina State Senate winner?
$9,104 vol
Republican party
1.28
x
76
%
Democratic party
8.56
x
11
%
US Elections
Pennsylvania State Senate winner?
$22,248 vol
Democratic party
1.44
x
70
%
Republican party
2.89
x
30
%
US Elections
North Carolina State House winner?
$13,025 vol
Republican party
1.90
x
52
%
Democratic party
2.09
x
46
%
Attorney General
Georgia Attorney General winner?
$12,760 vol
Tanya Miller
1.70
x
57
%
Brian Strickland
2.19
x
41
%
US Elections
Michigan State House winner?
$8,858 vol
Democratic party
1.31
x
76
%
Republican party
4.31
x
21
%
US Elections
Minnesota State Senate winner?
$21,687 vol
Democratic party
1.15
x
87
%
Republican party
9.41
x
10
%
US Elections
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
$168,644 vol
Bo French
1.79
x
55
%
Jon Rosenthal
2.05
x
52
%
Referendums
Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?
$53,871 vol
Yes
2.40
x
40
%
No
1.60
x
60
%
US Elections
Michigan State Senate winner?
$26,095 vol
Democratic party
1.14
x
86
%
Republican party
6.29
x
14
%
Attorney General
Kansas Attorney General winner?
$13,737 vol
Chris Mann
1.62
x
61
%
Kris Kobach
2.40
x
37
%
US Elections
Arizona State House winner?
$11,018 vol
Democratic party
1.25
x
76
%
Republican party
5.90
x
17
%
Attorney General
Iowa Attorney General winner?
$43,729 vol
Brenna Bird
1.67
x
58
%
Nate Willems
2.14
x
44
%
US Elections
Arizona State Senate winner?
$24,209 vol
Democratic party
1.28
x
77
%
Republican party
6.29
x
15
%
US Elections
Texas State Senate winner?
$25,910 vol
Republican party
1.06
x
94
%
Democratic party
18.8
x
5
%
Combos
Senate
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Above 52
39
%
52
23
%
$6,755,819 vol
10 markets
Senate
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
48
22
%
47
16
%
$3,799,155 vol
15 markets
Senate
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
James Talarico and Troy Jackson
51
%
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
28
%
$2,483,443 vol
6 markets
Senate
Closest Senate race this year?
Iowa
16
%
Kansas
15
%
$1,194,804 vol
20 markets
Senate
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Below 53
61
%
53
14
%
$809,304 vol
7 markets
Senate
Maine Senate Exact Outcome
Democratic party wins
61
%
Republican party wins
38
%
$749,743 vol
2 markets
Senate
Texas Senate: Exact outcome
Talarico defeats Paxton
64
%
Paxton defeats Talarico
37
%
$556,116 vol
2 markets
Senate
Will Democrats sweep the “core four” Senate races?
Yes
59
%
No
41
%
$441,717 vol
1 market
Senate
How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?
Exactly 0
94
%
Exactly 1
8
%
$131,395 vol
6 markets
Senate
Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?
Democratic sweep
34
%
Texas, Alaska, Ohio
26
%
$103,855 vol
16 markets
Show all 10 markets
Most traded
Texas
D
James Talarico
Talarico
R
Republican party
Republican
67%
33%
DEM
D 67%
REP
R 33%
Maine
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
64%
36%
DEM
D 64%
REP
R 36%
Ohio
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
69%
31%
DEM
D 69%
REP
R 31%
Michigan
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
68%
32%
DEM
D 68%
REP
R 32%
Kansas
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
39%
61%
DEM
D 39%
REP
R 61%
Iowa
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
43%
57%
DEM
D 43%
REP
R 57%
Georgia
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
89%
11%
DEM
D 89%
REP
R 11%
North Carolina
D
Roy Cooper
Cooper
R
Michael Whatley
Whatley
95%
5%
DEM
D 95%
REP
R 5%
Minnesota
D
Democratic (DFL) party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
86%
14%
DEM
D 86%
REP
R 14%
Idaho
I
Todd Achilles
Achilles
R
Republican party
Republican
*
5%
95%
IND
I 5%
REP
R 95%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
90%
10%
DEM
D 90%
REP
R 10%
Alaska
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
73%
27%
DEM
D 73%
REP
R 27%
South Carolina
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
19%
81%
DEM
D 19%
REP
R 81%
Nebraska
I
Dan Osborn
Osborn
R
Pete Ricketts
Ricketts
*
24%
76%
IND
I 24%
REP
R 76%
Kentucky
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
Mississippi
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
1%
99%
DEM
D 1%
REP
R 99%
Alabama
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
6%
94%
DEM
D 6%
REP
R 94%
Virginia
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
51%
Projected margin
D +14.5
49%
DEM
D 51%
REP
R 49%
Projected margin
D +14.5
New Mexico
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
86%
Projected margin
D +15.5
14%
DEM
D 86%
REP
R 14%
Projected margin
D +15.5
Florida
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
9%
91%
DEM
D 9%
REP
R 91%
1–5 of 35
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