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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
2026 Midterms
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
Key races
All
Texas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Talarico
67%
Republican
33%
Maine Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
64%
Republican
36%
Ohio Senate winner? (Special)
Nov 3
Democrat
69%
Republican
31%
Michigan Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
68%
Republican
32%
Who will win the governorship in Texas?
Nov 3
Hinojosa
32%
Abbott
68%
Kansas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
39%
Republican
61%
Iowa Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
43%
Republican
57%
MT-01 House winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
32%
Republican
68%
Who will win the governorship in Georgia?
Nov 3
Bottoms
60%
Jackson
40%
Alaska Senate winner? (Party)
Nov 3
Democrat
73%
Republican
27%
Who will win the governorship in Nevada?
Nov 3
Ford
53%
Lombardo
47%
PA-08 House winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
96%
Republican
4%
Senate
House
Governor
States
Balance of Power
Live
Kalshi Midterms Forecast
Democrats
favored to hold
21
seats,
Republicans
favored to hold
28
seats, with
1
toss-up
11 days to Election
21
Democrats
Republicans
28
24 current
Democratic seats
26 current
Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe Democratic
Total 11
D
Alabama
97%
D
Idaho
97%
D
Illinois
97%
D
Massachusetts
95%
D
Maine
97%
D
Minnesota
97%
D
Nebraska
97%
D
New Hampshire
98%
D
New York
95%
D
Pennsylvania
97%
D
South Dakota
97%
Likely Democratic
Total 3
D
Iowa
89%
D
Ohio
82%
D
Wisconsin
79%
Lean Democratic
Total 1
D
Georgia
61%
Toss-up
Total 1
Dem 1
Rep 0
D
Nevada
52%
Lean Republican
Total 1
R
Texas
72%
Likely Republican
Total 1
R
Florida
78%
Safe Republican
Total 18
R
Alaska
97%
R
Arkansas
97%
R
Arizona
97%
R
California
98%
R
Colorado
97%
R
Connecticut
97%
R
Hawaii
97%
R
Kansas
97%
R
Maryland
98%
R
Michigan
97%
R
New Mexico
97%
R
Oklahoma
99%
R
Oregon
97%
R
Rhode Island
97%
R
South Carolina
99%
R
Tennessee
99%
R
Vermont
97%
R
Wyoming
99%
Rating changes · Past month
More markets
158 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
Mayor
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
$198,653,290 vol
Nithya Raman
1.83
x
52
%
Karen Bass
2.01
x
48
%
Senate
Blue wave next year?
$54,517 vol
Yes
1.18
x
83
%
No
5.56
x
17
%
Attorney General
New York Attorney General winner?
$313,418 vol
Democratic party
1.07
x
92
%
Republican party
10.4
x
9
%
US Elections
How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win this year?
$0 vol
At least 1
--
0
%
At least 12
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
$2 vol
Bo French
--
2
%
Jon Rosenthal
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas House of Representatives winner
$2 vol
Democratic Party
--
2
%
Republican Party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Washington State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Washington State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Vermont State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Vermont State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Oregon State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Oregon State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
New York State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
New York State Assembly winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
New Mexico State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Colorado State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
51
%
Republican party
--
51
%
Other US Elections
Colorado State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Texas State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Nevada State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Nevada State Assembly winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Florida State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Florida State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Georgia State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Combos
Governor Combos
Closest Governor race this year?
Iowa
3
%
Kansas
3
%
$227 vol
24 markets
Governor Combos
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Republican Party
33
%
Tie
1
%
$47 vol
3 markets
Governor Combos
How many Governors will lose reelection this year?
Exactly 0
2
%
Exactly 1
1
%
$19 vol
6 markets
Governor Combos
Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?
Yes
90
%
No
10
%
$3 vol
1 market
Governor Combos
Which states will Republicans win a trifecta this year?
Alaska
0
%
Arizona
0
%
$0 vol
15 markets
Governor Combos
Which states will Democrats win a trifecta this year?
Arizona
0
%
Michigan
0
%
$0 vol
8 markets
Show all 6 markets
Most traded
New York
D
Kathy Hochul
Hochul
*
R
Bruce Blakeman
Blakeman
94%
6%
DEM
D 94%
REP
R 6%
Texas
D
Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa
R
Greg Abbott
Abbott
*
32%
68%
DEM
D 32%
REP
R 68%
Massachusetts
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
96%
4%
DEM
D 96%
REP
R 4%
Florida
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
20%
80%
DEM
D 20%
REP
R 80%
Ohio
D
Amy Acton
Acton
R
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ramaswamy
82%
18%
DEM
D 82%
REP
R 18%
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Bottoms
R
Rick Jackson
Jackson
60%
40%
DEM
D 60%
REP
R 40%
Nevada
D
Aaron Ford
Ford
R
Joe Lombardo
Lombardo
*
53%
47%
DEM
D 53%
REP
R 47%
Iowa
D
Rob Sand
Sand
R
Zach Lahn
Lahn
87%
13%
DEM
D 87%
REP
R 13%
Michigan
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
Idaho
D
Terri Pickens
Pickens
R
Brad Little
Little
*
40%
60%
DEM
D 40%
REP
R 60%
Maine
D
Hannah Pingree
Pingree
R
Robert Charles
Charles
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
Illinois
D
JB Pritzker
Pritzker
*
R
Darren Bailey
Bailey
97%
Projected margin
D +16.5
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
Projected margin
D +16.5
Hawaii
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
Projected margin
D +20.5
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
Projected margin
D +20.5
Alabama
D
Doug Jones
Jones
R
Tommy Tuberville
Tuberville
98%
2%
DEM
D 98%
REP
R 2%
Pennsylvania
D
Josh Shapiro
Shapiro
*
R
Stacy Garrity
Garrity
92%
Projected margin
D +15.5
8%
DEM
D 92%
REP
R 8%
Projected margin
D +15.5
Connecticut
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
Kansas
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
New Mexico
D
Deb Haaland
Haaland
R
Greggory D. Hull
Hull
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
Maryland
D
Wes Moore
Moore
*
R
Dan Cox
Cox
50%
50%
DEM
D 50%
REP
R 50%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
59%
41%
DEM
D 59%
REP
R 41%
1–5 of 36
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