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Bankruptcy & Defaults
Employment
Fed
GDP
Growth
Housing
Inflation
Interest rates
International
Jobs & Economy
Oil and energy

Economics

Fed

Fed decision in March?

Fed maintains rate
2.14x
Cut 25bps
46.8x
$8,464,724 vol4 markets
Employment

Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.4% this quarter?

Yes
2.29x
No
1.25x
$5,186 vol1 market
Employment

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Above 5%
5.25x
Above 10%
1.03x
$3,671 vol10 markets
Inflation

CPI month-over-month in June?

Exactly -0.1%
3.96x
Exactly 0.2%
1.03x
$56,865 vol9 markets
Employment

Jobs numbers in July?

Above 40,000
1.86x
Above 50,000
2.05x
$47 vol13 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate after June meeting?

Above 4.00%
1.03x
Above 2.75%
1.03x
$2,081 vol11 markets
Growth

Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?

$45 trillion
1.40x
$50 trillion
3.40x
$52,190 vol3 markets
Growth

Which countries will have a recession?

India
1.93x
China
2.59x
$72,682 vol4 markets
Confirmations

Powell leaves Fed before 2026?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.03x
$79,237 vol1 market
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
1.03x
No
1.18x
$0 vol1 market
Politics

Will Rubio and Vance run for President?

Yes
--
No
--
$0 vol1 market
Fed

UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q1 2026

Above 3.30%
--
Above 3.40%
--
$0 vol16 markets
Housing

US typical home value this month

Above 352500
--
Above 355000
--
$0 vol8 markets
Economics

USD/IRR on March 31, 2026

Above 1,000,000
--
Above 1,100,000
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

UK unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 4.7%
1.03x
Above 4.8%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Mexico unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 2.4%
--
Above 2.6%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

China unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 4.6%
--
Above 4.7%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Brazil unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 5.5%
1.40x
Above 4.7%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Australia unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 3.7%
1.03x
Above 3.8%
1.03x
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

India unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 4.3%
--
Above 4.4%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Russia unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 2.2%
--
Above 1.8%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Canada unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 6.8%
1.03x
Above 6.9%
1.03x
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Japan unemployment rate in February 2026

Above 2.1%
--
Above 2.2%
--
$0 vol10 markets
Employment

Germany unemployment rate in March 2026

Above 5.8%
--
Above 5.9%
--
$0 vol10 markets