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Fed

Fed

Fed decision in March?

Fed maintains rate
2.14x
Cut 25bps
46.8x
$8,464,675 vol4 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate after June meeting?

Above 4.00%
1.03x
Above 2.75%
1.03x
$2,081 vol11 markets
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
1.03x
No
1.18x
$0 vol1 market
Fed

UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q1 2026

Above 3.30%
--
Above 3.40%
--
$0 vol16 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 2 cuts
4.31x
Exactly 3 cuts
4.73x
$2,161 vol21 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
--
No
--
$0 vol1 market
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
1.03x
No
1.18x
$0 vol1 market
Fed

How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?

0
--
1
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
--
No
--
$0 vol1 market
Fed

Who will dissent at the March 2026 FOMC Meeting FOMC meeting?

Lisa Cook
1.04x
Neel Kashkari
1.04x
$2 vol12 markets
Politics

March 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0
1.79x
Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0
--
$0 vol4 markets
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 0
--
Exactly 1
--
$0 vol13 markets
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
--
1 cuts
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

SOFR at end of Q1 2026

Above 3.75%
--
Above 4.25%
--
$0 vol3 markets
Fed

Bank of Russia Rate Decision in March

Hike 50bps
--
Maintain current rate
--
$0 vol7 markets
Fed

Bank of Mexico Rate Decision in March

Cut more than 50bps
1.03x
Cut 25bps
--
$0 vol7 markets
Fed

Bank of Korea rate decision in April

Cut 1-25bps
--
Cut more than 25bps
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

Bank of Japan Rate Decision in March

Cut more than 25bps
--
Cut 25bps
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

European Central Bank Rate Decision in March

Hike 1-25bps
1.79x
Cut 1-25bps
--
$2 vol5 markets
Fed

Bank of England Rate Decision in March

Cut 1-25 basis points
1.79x
Cut more than 25bp
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

People's Bank of China Rate Decision in March

Cut more than 10 bps
1.79x
Cut 1-10 bps
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

Bank of Canada decision in March?

Maintains rate
1.03x
Cut 25bps
--
$0 vol5 markets
Fed

Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in March?

Cut 25 basis points
1.03x
Cut 50 basis points
1.03x
$0 vol7 markets
Fed

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision in March

Maintain current rate
1.02x
Cut 1-25bps
--
$0 vol5 markets