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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
2026 Midterms
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
Key races
All
Texas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Talarico
67%
Republican
33%
Maine Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
64%
Republican
36%
Ohio Senate winner? (Special)
Nov 3
Democrat
69%
Republican
31%
Michigan Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
68%
Republican
32%
Who will win the governorship in Texas?
Nov 3
Hinojosa
32%
Abbott
68%
Kansas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
39%
Republican
61%
Iowa Senate winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
43%
Republican
57%
MT-01 House winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
32%
Republican
68%
Who will win the governorship in Georgia?
Nov 3
Bottoms
60%
Jackson
40%
Alaska Senate winner? (Party)
Nov 3
Democrat
73%
Republican
27%
Who will win the governorship in Nevada?
Nov 3
Ford
53%
Lombardo
47%
PA-08 House winner?
Nov 3
Democrat
96%
Republican
4%
Senate
House
Governor
States
Balance of Power
Live
Kalshi Midterms Forecast
Democrats
have a
92%
chance
to control the House
11 days to Election
50
Democrats
Dem seats
218 to win
218
to win
Republicans
Rep seats
383
212 current
Democratic seats
219 current
Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe Democratic
Total 41
AR-02
D
90%
AZ-01
D
97%
AZ-02
D
97%
AZ-06
D
97%
CA-04
D
100%
CA-07
D
100%
CA-09
D
97%
CA-12
D
100%
CA-14
D
100%
CA-22
D
97%
CA-27
D
97%
CA-29
D
100%
CA-34
D
100%
CA-37
D
100%
CA-41
D
97%
CA-48
D
90%
CO-05
D
90%
FL-23
D
97%
FL-28
D
90%
IN-01
D
97%
KS-03
D
90%
KY-06
D
90%
ME-02
D
97%
MN-05
D
95%
MO-08
D
90%
NH-01
D
97%
NJ-05
D
97%
NJ-09
D
97%
NV-03
D
97%
NY-03
D
97%
NY-17
D
97%
NY-22
D
97%
OR-05
D
97%
PA-17
D
97%
SC-01
D
90%
TX-17
D
90%
TX-23
D
90%
TX-28
D
98%
UT-02
D
90%
VA-05
D
90%
WA-03
D
97%
Likely Democratic
Total 6
NC-01
D
80%
NY-12
D
86%
OH-05
D
86%
OK-05
D
86%
TX-15
D
88%
VA-02
D
85%
Lean Democratic
Total 3
CA-11
D
72%
FL-14
D
69%
PA-08
D
67%
Toss-up
Total 2
Dem 0
Rep 2
MT-01
R
57%
NM-02
R
51%
Lean Republican
Total 0
No races
Likely Republican
Total 332
AL-01
R
90%
AL-02
R
90%
AL-03
R
90%
AL-04
R
90%
AL-05
R
90%
AL-06
R
90%
AL-07
R
90%
AR-01
R
90%
AR-03
R
90%
AR-04
R
90%
AZ-03
R
90%
AZ-04
R
90%
AZ-05
R
90%
AZ-07
R
90%
AZ-08
R
90%
AZ-09
R
90%
CA-01
R
90%
CA-02
R
90%
CA-05
R
90%
CA-08
R
90%
CA-10
R
90%
CA-15
R
90%
CA-16
R
90%
CA-17
R
90%
CA-18
R
90%
CA-19
R
90%
CA-20
R
90%
CA-23
R
90%
CA-24
R
90%
CA-25
R
90%
CA-26
R
90%
CA-28
R
90%
CA-30
R
90%
CA-31
R
90%
CA-32
R
90%
CA-33
R
90%
CA-35
R
90%
CA-36
R
90%
CA-38
R
90%
CA-39
R
90%
CA-42
R
90%
CA-43
R
90%
CA-44
R
90%
CA-46
R
90%
CA-50
R
90%
CA-51
R
90%
CA-52
R
90%
CO-01
R
90%
CO-02
R
90%
CO-04
R
90%
CO-06
R
90%
CO-07
R
90%
CT-01
R
90%
CT-02
R
90%
CT-03
R
90%
CT-04
R
90%
DE-AL
R
90%
FL-01
R
90%
FL-03
R
90%
FL-04
R
90%
FL-05
R
90%
FL-06
R
90%
FL-07
R
90%
FL-08
R
90%
FL-09
R
90%
FL-10
R
90%
FL-11
R
90%
FL-12
R
90%
FL-15
R
90%
FL-16
R
90%
FL-17
R
90%
FL-18
R
90%
FL-19
R
90%
FL-20
R
90%
FL-21
R
90%
FL-22
R
90%
FL-24
R
90%
FL-25
R
90%
FL-26
R
90%
FL-27
R
90%
GA-01
R
90%
GA-02
R
90%
GA-03
R
90%
GA-04
R
90%
GA-05
R
90%
GA-06
R
90%
GA-07
R
90%
GA-08
R
90%
GA-09
R
90%
GA-10
R
90%
GA-11
R
90%
GA-12
R
90%
GA-13
R
90%
GA-14
R
90%
HI-01
R
90%
HI-02
R
90%
IA-02
R
90%
IA-04
R
90%
ID-01
R
90%
ID-02
R
90%
IL-01
R
90%
IL-02
R
90%
IL-03
R
90%
IL-05
R
90%
IL-06
R
90%
IL-07
R
90%
IL-08
R
90%
IL-09
R
90%
IL-10
R
90%
IL-11
R
90%
IL-12
R
90%
IL-13
R
90%
IL-14
R
90%
IL-15
R
90%
IL-16
R
90%
IN-02
R
90%
IN-03
R
90%
IN-04
R
90%
IN-05
R
90%
IN-06
R
90%
IN-07
R
90%
IN-08
R
90%
IN-09
R
90%
KS-01
R
90%
KS-02
R
90%
KS-04
R
90%
KY-01
R
90%
KY-02
R
90%
KY-03
R
90%
KY-04
R
90%
KY-05
R
90%
LA-01
R
90%
LA-02
R
90%
LA-03
R
90%
LA-04
R
90%
LA-05
R
90%
LA-06
R
90%
MA-01
R
90%
MA-02
R
90%
MA-03
R
90%
MA-04
R
90%
MA-05
R
90%
MA-06
R
90%
MA-07
R
90%
MA-08
R
90%
MA-09
R
90%
MD-01
R
90%
MD-02
R
90%
MD-03
R
90%
MD-04
R
90%
MD-05
R
90%
MD-06
R
90%
MD-07
R
90%
MD-08
R
90%
ME-01
R
90%
MI-01
R
90%
MI-02
R
90%
MI-05
R
90%
MI-06
R
90%
MI-09
R
90%
MI-11
R
90%
MI-12
R
90%
MI-13
R
90%
MN-01
R
90%
MN-03
R
90%
MN-04
R
90%
MN-06
R
90%
MN-07
R
90%
MN-08
R
90%
MO-01
R
90%
MO-02
R
90%
MO-03
R
90%
MO-04
R
90%
MO-06
R
90%
MO-07
R
90%
MS-01
R
90%
MS-02
R
90%
MS-03
R
90%
MS-04
R
90%
MT-02
R
90%
NC-02
R
90%
NC-03
R
90%
NC-04
R
90%
NC-05
R
90%
NC-06
R
90%
NC-07
R
90%
NC-08
R
90%
NC-09
R
90%
NC-10
R
90%
NC-11
R
90%
NC-12
R
90%
NC-13
R
90%
NC-14
R
90%
ND-AL
R
90%
NE-01
R
90%
NE-03
R
90%
NJ-01
R
90%
NJ-02
R
90%
NJ-03
R
90%
NJ-04
R
90%
NJ-06
R
86%
NJ-08
R
86%
NJ-10
R
86%
NJ-11
R
86%
NJ-12
R
86%
NM-01
R
86%
NM-03
R
86%
NV-02
R
86%
NY-01
R
86%
NY-02
R
86%
NY-05
R
86%
NY-06
R
86%
NY-07
R
86%
NY-08
R
86%
NY-09
R
86%
NY-10
R
86%
NY-13
R
86%
NY-14
R
86%
NY-15
R
86%
NY-16
R
86%
NY-20
R
86%
NY-21
R
86%
NY-23
R
86%
NY-24
R
86%
NY-25
R
86%
NY-26
R
86%
OH-02
R
86%
OH-03
R
86%
OH-04
R
86%
OH-06
R
86%
OH-07
R
86%
OH-10
R
86%
OH-11
R
86%
OH-12
R
86%
OH-14
R
86%
OH-15
R
86%
OK-01
R
86%
OK-02
R
86%
OK-03
R
86%
OK-04
R
86%
OR-01
R
86%
OR-02
R
86%
OR-03
R
86%
OR-04
R
86%
OR-06
R
86%
PA-02
R
86%
PA-03
R
86%
PA-04
R
86%
PA-05
R
86%
PA-06
R
90%
PA-09
R
90%
PA-11
R
90%
PA-12
R
90%
PA-13
R
90%
PA-14
R
90%
PA-15
R
90%
PA-16
R
90%
RI-01
R
90%
RI-02
R
90%
SC-02
R
90%
SC-03
R
90%
SC-04
R
90%
SC-05
R
90%
SC-06
R
90%
SC-07
R
90%
SD-AL
R
90%
TN-01
R
90%
TN-02
R
90%
TN-03
R
90%
TN-04
R
90%
TN-05
R
90%
TN-06
R
90%
TN-07
R
90%
TN-08
R
90%
TN-09
R
90%
TX-01
R
90%
TX-02
R
90%
TX-03
R
90%
TX-04
R
90%
TX-05
R
90%
TX-06
R
90%
TX-07
R
90%
TX-08
R
90%
TX-09
R
90%
TX-10
R
90%
TX-11
R
90%
TX-12
R
90%
TX-13
R
90%
TX-14
R
90%
TX-16
R
90%
TX-18
R
90%
TX-19
R
90%
TX-20
R
90%
TX-21
R
90%
TX-22
R
90%
TX-24
R
90%
TX-25
R
90%
TX-26
R
90%
TX-27
R
90%
TX-29
R
90%
TX-30
R
90%
TX-31
R
90%
TX-32
R
90%
TX-33
R
90%
TX-36
R
90%
TX-37
R
90%
TX-38
R
90%
UT-01
R
90%
UT-04
R
90%
VA-03
R
90%
VA-04
R
90%
VA-06
R
90%
VA-08
R
90%
VA-09
R
90%
VA-11
R
90%
VT-AL
R
90%
WA-01
R
90%
WA-02
R
90%
WA-04
R
90%
WA-05
R
90%
WA-06
R
90%
WA-07
R
90%
WA-10
R
90%
WI-02
R
90%
WI-04
R
90%
WI-05
R
90%
WI-06
R
90%
WI-07
R
90%
WI-08
R
90%
WV-01
R
90%
WV-02
R
90%
WY-AL
R
90%
Safe Republican
Total 51
AK-AL
R
97%
CA-03
R
97%
CA-06
R
99%
CA-13
R
97%
CA-21
R
97%
CA-40
R
100%
CA-45
R
97%
CA-47
R
97%
CA-49
R
98%
CO-03
R
97%
CO-08
R
99%
CT-05
R
97%
FL-02
R
98%
FL-13
R
97%
IA-01
R
97%
IA-03
R
97%
IL-04
R
99%
IL-17
R
97%
MI-03
R
97%
MI-04
R
97%
MI-07
R
97%
MI-08
R
97%
MI-10
R
97%
MN-02
R
97%
MO-05
R
97%
NE-02
R
97%
NH-02
R
97%
NJ-07
R
97%
NV-01
R
97%
NV-04
R
97%
NY-04
R
97%
NY-11
R
98%
NY-18
R
97%
NY-19
R
97%
OH-01
R
97%
OH-08
R
98%
OH-09
R
97%
OH-13
R
97%
PA-01
R
97%
PA-07
R
97%
PA-10
R
97%
TX-34
R
94%
TX-35
R
99%
UT-03
R
97%
VA-01
R
94%
VA-07
R
97%
VA-10
R
97%
WA-08
R
97%
WA-09
R
99%
WI-01
R
99%
WI-03
R
97%
Rating changes · Past month
More markets
158 events
Market
Pays out
Odds
Mayor
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
$198,653,290 vol
Nithya Raman
1.83
x
52
%
Karen Bass
2.01
x
48
%
Senate
Blue wave next year?
$54,517 vol
Yes
1.18
x
83
%
No
5.56
x
17
%
Attorney General
New York Attorney General winner?
$313,418 vol
Democratic party
1.07
x
92
%
Republican party
10.4
x
9
%
US Elections
How many Texas statewide races will Democrats win this year?
$0 vol
At least 1
--
0
%
At least 12
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
$2 vol
Bo French
--
2
%
Jon Rosenthal
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas House of Representatives winner
$2 vol
Democratic Party
--
2
%
Republican Party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Washington State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Washington State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Vermont State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Vermont State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Oregon State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Oregon State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
New York State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
New York State Assembly winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
New Mexico State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Colorado State Senate winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
51
%
Republican party
--
51
%
Other US Elections
Colorado State House winner?
$0 vol
Democratic party
--
0
%
Republican party
--
0
%
Other US Elections
Texas State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Texas State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Nevada State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Nevada State Assembly winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Florida State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Florida State House winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Other US Elections
Georgia State Senate winner?
$2 vol
Democratic party
--
2
%
Republican party
--
90
%
Combos
House
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Below 193
35
%
198-202
18
%
$5,704,744 vol
11 markets
House
U.S. House national popular vote margin of victory?
Democrats, 8 to 10%
25
%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
20
%
$4,602,770 vol
10 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Above 249
17
%
234-237
17
%
$1,230,843 vol
12 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Iowa?
Above 2
54
%
0
46
%
$11,685 vol
4 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Minnesota?
Above 5
9
%
Below 3
30
%
$9,205 vol
5 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?
9
2
%
7
31
%
$111 vol
7 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)
Above 253
0
%
Above 256
0
%
$42 vol
16 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?
10
2
%
4
1
%
$27 vol
9 markets
House
How many House seats will Democrats win in California?
Below 44
2
%
49
2
%
$24 vol
8 markets
Seat Count
How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?
Above 2
2
%
0
1
%
$15 vol
4 markets
Show all 10 markets
Projected flip races
To Democrat
To Republican
AZ-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
AZ-02
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
51%
49%
DEM
D 51%
REP
R 49%
AZ-06
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
CA-22
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
CA-41
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
Show all 25 markets
Most traded
TX-15
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
88%
12%
DEM
D 88%
REP
R 12%
MT-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
32%
68%
DEM
D 32%
REP
R 68%
PA-08
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
96%
4%
DEM
D 96%
REP
R 4%
WA-08
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
NJ-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
43%
57%
DEM
D 43%
REP
R 57%
NC-01
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
81%
19%
DEM
D 81%
REP
R 19%
NY-19
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
1%
99%
DEM
D 1%
REP
R 99%
VA-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
CA-03
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
Projected margin
D +30.5
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
Projected margin
D +30.5
CA-49
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
67%
33%
DEM
D 67%
REP
R 33%
CA-41
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
97%
3%
DEM
D 97%
REP
R 3%
CA-45
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
OH-13
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
ME-02
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
51%
49%
DEM
D 51%
REP
R 49%
CA-47
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
TX-28
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
33%
67%
DEM
D 33%
REP
R 67%
PA-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
NY-22
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
99%
1%
DEM
D 99%
REP
R 1%
MI-07
D
Democratic party
Democrat
R
Republican party
Republican
*
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
MI-03
D
Democratic party
Democrat
*
R
Republican party
Republican
75%
25%
DEM
D 75%
REP
R 25%
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