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Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Peru
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have an 85% chance to control the House

Early forecasts · 70 days to Election
34DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats397
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 33
AR-02
D98%
AZ-01
D99%
CA-04
D100%
CA-07
D100%
CA-11
D100%
CA-12
D100%
CA-14
D100%
CA-22
D99%
CA-29
D100%
CA-34
D100%
CA-37
D100%
CA-48
D98%
CA-49
D97%
CO-05
D98%
FL-23
D99%
FL-28
D98%
KS-03
D98%
KY-06
D98%
MO-08
D97%
NH-01
D99%
NV-03
D94%
NY-12
D97%
NY-19
D97%
OH-05
D97%
OH-09
D97%
OK-05
D98%
PA-17
D99%
SC-01
D98%
TX-17
D98%
TX-23
D98%
UT-02
D97%
VA-02
D97%
VA-05
D98%

Likely Democratic

Total 0
No races

Lean Democratic

Total 1
IA-01
D65%

Toss-up

Total 4Dem 1Rep 3
NM-02
R51%
OR-05
D53%
TX-15
R52%
TX-35
R55%

Lean Republican

Total 0
No races

Likely Republican

Total 0
No races

Safe Republican

Total 397
AK-AL
R97%
AL-01
R99%
AL-02
R99%
AL-03
R99%
AL-04
R99%
AL-05
R99%
AL-06
R99%
AL-07
R99%
AR-01
R99%
AR-03
R99%
AR-04
R99%
AZ-02
R97%
AZ-03
R99%
AZ-04
R99%
AZ-05
R99%
AZ-06
R98%
AZ-07
R99%
AZ-08
R98%
AZ-09
R99%
CA-01
R99%
CA-02
R99%
CA-03
R97%
CA-05
R98%
CA-06
R99%
CA-08
R99%
CA-09
R97%
CA-10
R99%
CA-13
R97%
CA-15
R99%
CA-16
R99%
CA-17
R99%
CA-18
R99%
CA-19
R99%
CA-20
R99%
CA-21
R97%
CA-23
R99%
CA-24
R99%
CA-25
R98%
CA-26
R99%
CA-27
R97%
CA-28
R99%
CA-30
R99%
CA-31
R98%
CA-32
R99%
CA-33
R99%
CA-35
R98%
CA-36
R99%
CA-38
R99%
CA-39
R99%
CA-40
R100%
CA-41
R97%
CA-42
R99%
CA-43
R98%
CA-44
R99%
CA-45
R97%
CA-46
R99%
CA-47
R97%
CA-50
R99%
CA-51
R99%
CA-52
R99%
CO-01
R99%
CO-02
R99%
CO-03
R99%
CO-04
R99%
CO-06
R99%
CO-07
R99%
CO-08
R97%
CT-01
R99%
CT-02
R99%
CT-03
R99%
CT-04
R99%
CT-05
R98%
DE-AL
R99%
FL-01
R99%
FL-02
R98%
FL-03
R99%
FL-04
R98%
FL-05
R99%
FL-06
R99%
FL-07
R99%
FL-08
R99%
FL-09
R99%
FL-10
R99%
FL-11
R98%
FL-12
R99%
FL-13
R97%
FL-14
R99%
FL-15
R99%
FL-16
R98%
FL-17
R99%
FL-18
R99%
FL-19
R99%
FL-20
R98%
FL-21
R99%
FL-22
R99%
FL-24
R99%
FL-25
R99%
FL-26
R99%
FL-27
R99%
GA-01
R98%
GA-02
R99%
GA-03
R99%
GA-04
R99%
GA-05
R99%
GA-06
R99%
GA-07
R99%
GA-08
R99%
GA-09
R99%
GA-10
R99%
GA-11
R99%
GA-12
R99%
GA-13
R99%
GA-14
R99%
HI-01
R99%
HI-02
R99%
IA-02
R99%
IA-03
R97%
IA-04
R99%
ID-01
R99%
ID-02
R99%
IL-01
R99%
IL-02
R99%
IL-03
R98%
IL-04
R99%
IL-05
R99%
IL-06
R99%
IL-07
R99%
IL-08
R99%
IL-09
R99%
IL-10
R99%
IL-11
R99%
IL-12
R99%
IL-13
R99%
IL-14
R99%
IL-15
R99%
IL-16
R99%
IL-17
R97%
IN-01
R97%
IN-02
R99%
IN-03
R99%
IN-04
R99%
IN-05
R99%
IN-06
R99%
IN-07
R99%
IN-08
R99%
IN-09
R99%
KS-01
R99%
KS-02
R99%
KS-04
R99%
KY-01
R99%
KY-02
R99%
KY-03
R99%
KY-04
R99%
KY-05
R99%
LA-01
R99%
LA-02
R99%
LA-03
R99%
LA-04
R99%
LA-05
R99%
LA-06
R99%
MA-01
R99%
MA-02
R99%
MA-03
R99%
MA-04
R99%
MA-05
R99%
MA-06
R99%
MA-07
R99%
MA-08
R99%
MA-09
R99%
MD-01
R98%
MD-02
R99%
MD-03
R99%
MD-04
R99%
MD-05
R99%
MD-06
R99%
MD-07
R99%
MD-08
R99%
ME-01
R99%
ME-02
R97%
MI-01
R98%
MI-02
R99%
MI-03
R97%
MI-04
R97%
MI-05
R99%
MI-06
R99%
MI-07
R97%
MI-08
R97%
MI-09
R99%
MI-10
R97%
MI-11
R99%
MI-12
R99%
MI-13
R99%
MN-01
R99%
MN-02
R97%
MN-03
R99%
MN-04
R99%
MN-05
R99%
MN-06
R99%
MN-07
R99%
MN-08
R99%
MO-01
R99%
MO-02
R99%
MO-03
R99%
MO-04
R98%
MO-05
R97%
MO-06
R99%
MO-07
R99%
MS-01
R99%
MS-02
R99%
MS-03
R99%
MS-04
R99%
MT-01
R97%
MT-02
R99%
NC-01
R97%
NC-02
R99%
NC-03
R99%
NC-04
R99%
NC-05
R99%
NC-06
R99%
NC-07
R99%
NC-08
R99%
NC-09
R98%
NC-10
R99%
NC-11
R99%
NC-12
R99%
NC-13
R99%
NC-14
R99%
ND-AL
R99%
NE-01
R99%
NE-02
R97%
NE-03
R99%
NH-02
R97%
NJ-01
R99%
NJ-02
R99%
NJ-03
R99%
NJ-04
R99%
NJ-05
R97%
NJ-06
R99%
NJ-07
R97%
NJ-08
R99%
NJ-09
R97%
NJ-10
R99%
NJ-11
R99%
NJ-12
R99%
NM-01
R99%
NM-03
R98%
NV-01
R97%
NV-02
R99%
NV-04
R97%
NY-01
R99%
NY-02
R99%
NY-03
R97%
NY-04
R97%
NY-05
R99%
NY-06
R99%
NY-07
R99%
NY-08
R99%
NY-09
R99%
NY-10
R99%
NY-11
R98%
NY-13
R99%
NY-14
R99%
NY-15
R99%
NY-16
R99%
NY-17
R97%
NY-18
R97%
NY-20
R99%
NY-21
R99%
NY-22
R97%
NY-23
R99%
NY-24
R99%
NY-25
R99%
NY-26
R99%
OH-01
R97%
OH-02
R99%
OH-03
R99%
OH-04
R99%
OH-06
R99%
OH-07
R99%
OH-08
R98%
OH-10
R99%
OH-11
R99%
OH-12
R99%
OH-13
R97%
OH-14
R99%
OH-15
R98%
OK-01
R99%
OK-02
R94%
OK-03
R99%
OK-04
R99%
OR-01
R99%
OR-02
R99%
OR-03
R99%
OR-04
R99%
OR-06
R99%
PA-01
R97%
PA-02
R99%
PA-03
R99%
PA-04
R99%
PA-05
R99%
PA-06
R99%
PA-07
R97%
PA-08
R97%
PA-09
R99%
PA-10
R99%
PA-11
R99%
PA-12
R99%
PA-13
R99%
PA-14
R99%
PA-15
R99%
PA-16
R99%
RI-01
R99%
RI-02
R99%
SC-02
R99%
SC-03
R99%
SC-04
R99%
SC-05
R99%
SC-06
R99%
SC-07
R99%
SD-AL
R99%
TN-01
R99%
TN-02
R99%
TN-03
R99%
TN-04
R99%
TN-05
R99%
TN-06
R95%
TN-07
R99%
TN-08
R99%
TN-09
R99%
TX-01
R99%
TX-02
R99%
TX-03
R99%
TX-04
R99%
TX-05
R99%
TX-06
R99%
TX-07
R99%
TX-08
R99%
TX-09
R98%
TX-10
R98%
TX-11
R99%
TX-12
R99%
TX-13
R99%
TX-14
R98%
TX-16
R99%
TX-18
R99%
TX-19
R99%
TX-20
R99%
TX-21
R99%
TX-22
R99%
TX-24
R99%
TX-25
R98%
TX-26
R99%
TX-27
R99%
TX-28
R97%
TX-29
R99%
TX-30
R99%
TX-31
R99%
TX-32
R99%
TX-33
R99%
TX-34
R94%
TX-36
R99%
TX-37
R99%
TX-38
R99%
UT-01
R99%
UT-03
R97%
UT-04
R99%
VA-01
R94%
VA-03
R99%
VA-04
R98%
VA-06
R99%
VA-07
R97%
VA-08
R99%
VA-09
R99%
VA-10
R97%
VA-11
R99%
VT-AL
R99%
WA-01
R99%
WA-02
R99%
WA-03
R97%
WA-04
R99%
WA-05
R99%
WA-06
R99%
WA-07
R99%
WA-08
R97%
WA-09
R99%
WA-10
R99%
WI-01
R99%
WI-02
R99%
WI-03
R97%
WI-04
R99%
WI-05
R99%
WI-06
R99%
WI-07
R99%
WI-08
R99%
WV-01
R99%
WV-02
R99%
WY-AL
R99%

More markets

132 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

$196,106,381 vol
Karen Bass
1.52x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.59x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$2 vol
Bo French
--
Jon Rosenthal
--
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2 vol
Democratic Party
--
Republican Party
--
Other US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.08x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Other US Elections

Georgia State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Texas State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Florida State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Florida State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Ohio State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Nevada State Assembly winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Arizona State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

North Carolina State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Maine State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Iowa State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--

Combos

House

U.S. House national popular vote margin of victory?

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
$2,019,626 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

230-233
234-237
$199 vol12 markets
House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

193-197
203-207
$160 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)

Above 211
Above 214
$42 vol14 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?

10
4
$27 vol9 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in California?

Below 44
49
$24 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

Above 2
0
$15 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?

Above 2
0
$12 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?

Above 2
0
$12 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?

Above 2
0
$12 vol4 markets

Projected flip races

AZ-01
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
99%
1%
CA-22
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
79%
21%
TX-15
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
49%
51%
WA-08
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
NJ-07
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
50%
50%
NY-19
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
25%
75%
VA-07
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
CA-03
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
NC-01
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
CA-49
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
40%
60%
CA-41
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
CA-45
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
OH-13
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
ME-02
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
CA-47
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
MT-01
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
TX-28
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
PA-07
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
50%
50%
PA-08
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
50%
50%
NY-22
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
MI-07
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
50%
50%
MI-03
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
1–5 of 434
Showing 5 of 434