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Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.

Foreign Elections

SCOTUS & courts

New US-Iran nuclear deal this year?

Before February 2027

6.74x

Before 2027

2.81x

$39,814,453 vol7 markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Above 15

--

Above 30

7.25x

$110,988 vol8 markets

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)

Above 150

--

Above 180

--

$9 vol11 markets

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

Before Nov 1, 2026

9.41x

Before Dec 1, 2026

--

$0 vol6 markets

Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?

Yes

--

No

--

Will Donald Trump visit Iran?

Yes

--

No

--

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

Above 320

--

Above 270

1.13x

$0 vol8 markets

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran this year?

Yes

1.03x

No

1.01x

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

Above 180

--

Above 205

8.56x

$0 vol9 markets

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran this year?

Yes

--

No

--

$14 vol1 market

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?

Yes

--

No

93.5x

$15 vol1 market

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

At least 10

--

At least 12

--

$0 vol9 markets

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?

Before 2027

1.02x

Before 2028

--

$6 vol2 markets

Will Iran become a democracy this year?

Yes

1.02x

No

1.06x

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Above 10

15.6x

Above 4

--

$0 vol8 markets

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)

October 21

--

October 22

--

$0 vol7 markets

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get this year?

Above 100

--

Above 110

--

$27 vol10 markets