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Hub
Fed
Jul 29
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
Above 1.50%
93
%
Above 1.00%
1
%
$2,803 vol
19 more
Fed
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
Market
Pays out
Odds
Above 1.50%
1.07
x
93
%
Above 1.00%
--
1
%
Above 1.25%
--
1
%
Above 1.75%
--
1
%
$2,803 vol
17 more
1 of 3
US FED
Fed decision in October?
Fed maintains rate
1.06
x
94
%
Hike 25bps
15.6
x
6
%
$10,018,580 vol
5 markets
Inflation
CPI year-over-year in October?
Exactly 2.5%
--
99
%
Exactly 2.0%
--
1
%
$50 vol
16 markets
Oil and energy
How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get this year?
Above 91,500 MW
18.8
x
5
%
Above 92,500 MW
23.4
x
4
%
$2,280,156 vol
7 markets
Jobs & Economy
Jobs numbers in October 2026?
Above 70,000
1.86
x
52
%
Above 50,000
1.65
x
59
%
$6,162,748 vol
13 markets
Jobs & Economy
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 12%
--
1
%
Above 15%
--
1
%
$4,883 vol
14 markets
Global Central Banks
European Central Bank rate decision in October
Cut 1-25bps
--
0
%
Cut more than 25bps
--
0
%
$80 vol
5 markets
Oil and energy
Georgia gas prices tomorrow
LIVE
Above 3.6700
4.73
x
77
%
Above 3.6800
--
9
%
$51 vol
17 markets
Oil and energy
Virginia gas prices tomorrow
LIVE
Above 4.0550
--
97
%
Above 4.0600
--
97
%
$50 vol
17 markets
Oil and energy
New Mexico gas prices tomorrow
LIVE
Above 4.2400
--
0
%
Above 4.2550
--
0
%
$50 vol
17 markets
Oil and energy
Utah gas prices tomorrow
LIVE
Above 4.6900
--
10
%
Above 4.6650
--
50
%
$29 vol
17 markets
Oil and energy
Texas crude oil production this year
Above 5.8 million barrels/day
4.73
x
19
%
Above 5.9 million barrels/day
23.4
x
15
%
$20 vol
4 markets
Inflation
ISM Manufacturing PMI in October
At least 51
--
50
%
At least 52
--
50
%
$20 vol
8 markets
Oil and energy
West Virginia gas prices tomorrow
LIVE
Above 4.1850
--
50
%
Above 4.1900
--
50
%
$18 vol
17 markets
GDP
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Above 1.0%
--
2
%
Above 3.5%
--
36
%
$112 vol
9 markets
US FED
How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?
0
--
32
%
3
5.25
x
9
%
$16 vol
6 markets
Inflation
Chipotle Chicken Burrito price in October
At least $9.83
1.14
x
87
%
At least $9.82
--
50
%
$11 vol
6 markets
Global Central Banks
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October
Maintain current rate
2.81
x
17
%
Cut 1-25bps
--
0
%
$14 vol
5 markets
Housing
US new home sales for September
Above 620,000
--
0
%
Above 640,000
--
0
%
$11 vol
8 markets
Oil and energy
Delaware gas prices tomorrow
LIVE
Above 4.0000
--
0
%
Above 4.0200
--
0
%
$6 vol
27 markets
Inflation
Wendy’s Baconator price in October
At least $8.71
--
34
%
At least $8.68
--
50
%
$5 vol
7 markets
Jobs & Economy
Will AI be the #1 reason for job cuts in October?
Yes
--
23
%
No
--
77
%
$5 vol
1 market