What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

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Primaries Odds & Predictions 2026

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Primaries

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

Francesca Hong

1.23x

Mandela Barnes

9.41x

$9,283,804 vol11 markets

Governer

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

Byron Donalds

1.03x

Jay Collins

23.4x

$6,525,911 vol9 markets

Senate

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Abdul El-Sayed

1.23x

Haley Stevens

4.31x

$2,010,307 vol9 markets

Primaries

Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota?

Steve Simon

1.01x

Keith Ellison

1.03x

$831,612 vol10 markets

Primaries

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Dick DeVos

1.03x

Garrett Soldano

1.03x

$240,587 vol15 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

Eric Hovde

1.03x

Patrick Testin

1.03x

$120,423 vol8 markets

Primaries

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Ashton Hayward

1.03x

Casey DeSantis

1.03x

$172,323 vol10 markets

Primaries

Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?

Dan Kildee

1.03x

Jocelyn Benson

1.03x

$158,353 vol9 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

David Wellstone

1.03x

Melisa López Franzen

1.03x

$155,942 vol10 markets

Primaries

Who will win Alaska’s top-four primary for Governor?

Edna DeVries

93.5x

Mary Peltola

93.5x

$111,532 vol16 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida?

Daniella Levine Cava

1.03x

Fentrice Driskell

1.03x

$96,140 vol9 markets

Primaries

Kansas Republican Governor nominee?

Kris Kobach

1.03x

Vicki Schmidt

1.02x

$93,845 vol8 markets

Primaries

FL-19 Republican nominee?

Bob Rommel

1.03x

Madison Cawthorn

1.03x

$75,366 vol8 markets

Primaries

Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?

Cindy Holscher

1.03x

David Toland

1.03x

$72,980 vol4 markets

Primaries

Michigan Republican Senate Nominee

Frederick Heurtebise

1.03x

Genevieve Scott

1.03x

$56,772 vol5 markets

Primaries

Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?

Luke Bronin

1.02x

Ned Lamont

1.03x

$56,646 vol5 markets

Primaries

NH-01 Democratic nominee?

Carleigh Beriont

Maura Sullivan

93.5x

$55,528 vol3 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

Chris Pappas

1.03x

Maggie Goodlander

1.03x

$54,195 vol6 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?

Dan Koh

Dominick Pangallo

93.5x

$44,421 vol9 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate Nominee

Julia Coleman

1.03x

Kristin Robbins

1.03x

$41,650 vol9 markets

Primaries

Rhode Island Democratic Senate nominee?

Jack Reed

Connor Burbridge

93.5x

$37,237 vol2 markets

Primaries

Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee?

Allen Waters

1.03x

Raymond McKay

93.5x

$35,856 vol2 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee?

John Rose

1.03x

Marsha Blackburn

93.5x

$35,686 vol3 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?

Aisha Farooqi

1.03x

Andy Levin

1.03x

$34,622 vol5 markets

Primaries

MN-02 Democratic nominee?

Matt Klein

1.03x

Matt Little

$34,460 vol3 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?

Brent Bien

Harriet Hageman

93.5x

$34,275 vol5 markets

Primaries

Who will win the WA-4 primary?

John Duresky

1.03x

Jerrod Sessler

93.5x

$32,923 vol6 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?

Charlie Crist

93.5x

Jared Moskowitz

93.5x

$31,336 vol8 markets

Primaries

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nominee

Ayanna Pressley

1.03x

Alexander Rikleen

1.03x

$30,785 vol4 markets

Primaries

Who will be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

John E. Sununu

1.03x

Scott Brown

$30,048 vol4 markets

Primaries

Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?

Dan McKee

Helena Foulkes

93.5x

$24,057 vol3 markets

Primaries

Democratic Senate primaries combo

Yes

7.85x

$9 vol1 market

Primaries

WA-01 primary: who will advance?

Suzan DelBene

1.79x

Bryce Nickel

1.01x

$8 vol7 markets

Primaries

Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?

Jamie Reitenour

Diego Morales

$4 vol3 markets

Primaries

How many House Democrats will lose their primaries this year?

4.98x

$3 vol8 markets

Primaries

Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

Elaine Pelino

Aaron Guckian

$1 vol3 markets

Primaries

California governor primary: which counties will Tom Steyer win?

Alameda

Contra Costa

$1 vol10 markets

Primaries

Virginia Republican Senate Nominee

Kim Farington

Bert Mizusawa

1.28x

$1 vol8 markets

Primaries

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?

Aaron Reitz

Chip Roy

$0 vol4 markets

Primaries

North Carolina Democratic Senate primary: Roy Cooper vote percent?

Less than 75%

75 - 79.99%

$0 vol6 markets

Primaries

North Carolina Republican Senate primary: Michael Whatley vote percent?

Less than 70%

70 - 74.99%

$0 vol7 markets

Primaries

WA-04 primary: who will advance?

Amanda McKinney

Carmen Black

$0 vol13 markets

Primaries

MA-06 Democratic nominee?

Beth Andres-Beck

Daniel Koh

$0 vol7 markets

Primaries

Texas Democratic Attorney General nominee?

Nathan Johnson

Tony Box

$0 vol3 markets

Primaries

TX-18 Democratic nominee?

Amanda Edwards

Christian Menefee

$0 vol4 markets

Primaries

CT-01 Democratic nominee?

Jillian Gilchrest

John Larson

$0 vol6 markets

Primaries

CT-04 Republican nominee?

Daniel Miressi

Luz Bueno

$0 vol3 markets

Primaries

CT-05 Republican nominee?

Jonathan De Barros

Michele Botelho

$0 vol4 markets

Primaries

DE-AL Republican nominee?

Gavin Solomon

Donyale Hall

$0 vol4 markets

Primaries

Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep?

Yes

1.03x

1.02x

$0 vol1 market

Elections

2026 Primaries

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Democratic nominee for Governor in Minnesota?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Who will win Alaska’s top-four primary for Governor?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida?

Kansas Republican Governor nominee?

FL-19 Republican nominee?

Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?

Michigan Republican Senate Nominee

Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?

NH-01 Democratic nominee?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?

Minnesota Republican Senate Nominee

Rhode Island Democratic Senate nominee?

Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee?

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?

MN-02 Democratic nominee?

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?

Who will win the WA-4 primary?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nominee

Who will be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?

Democratic Senate primaries combo

WA-01 primary: who will advance?

Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?

How many House Democrats will lose their primaries this year?

Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

California governor primary: which counties will Tom Steyer win?

Virginia Republican Senate Nominee

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?

North Carolina Democratic Senate primary: Roy Cooper vote percent?

North Carolina Republican Senate primary: Michael Whatley vote percent?

WA-04 primary: who will advance?

MA-06 Democratic nominee?

Texas Democratic Attorney General nominee?

TX-18 Democratic nominee?

CT-01 Democratic nominee?

CT-04 Republican nominee?

CT-05 Republican nominee?

DE-AL Republican nominee?

Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep?