What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

What is a prediction market for elections?

A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts based on election outcomes, producing real-time probability estimates that reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Elections

For the November 3 general election, see Kalshi's 2026 midterm predictions.

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NJ-11 special?

Analilia Mejia

1.01x

Anna Lee Williams

1.03x

$441,319 vol

California Governor primary: who will outperform the polls?

Chad Bianco

Antonio Villaraigosa

$33 vol

MA-06 Democratic nominee?

Beth Andres-Beck

Daniel Koh

$21 vol

California governor primary: which candidates will win a county?

Chad Bianco

Katie Porter

$18 vol

WA-04 primary: who will advance?

Amanda McKinney

Carmen Black

$13 vol

Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?

Jamie Reitenour

Diego Morales

$13 vol

Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?

Aaron Reitz

Chip Roy

$12 vol

California governor primary: which counties will Tom Steyer win?

Alameda

Contra Costa

$11 vol

California governor primary: which counties will Xavier Becerra win?

Contra Costa

Fresno

$10 vol

California governor primary: which counties will Steve Hilton win?

Butte

El Dorado

$10 vol

Texas Democratic Attorney General nominee?

Joe Jaworski

Nathan Johnson

$9 vol

California governor primary: Xavier Becerra vote percent

8% - 12%

12% - 16%

$9 vol

California governor primary: Eric Swalwell vote percent

12% - 16%

8% - 12%

$9 vol

California governor primary: Katie Porter vote percent

8% - 12%

12% - 16%

$9 vol

California governor primary: Steve Hilton vote percent

8% - 12%

12% - 16%

$9 vol

California governor primary: Tom Steyer vote percent

8% - 12%

12% - 16%

$9 vol

North Carolina Republican Senate primary: Michael Whatley vote percent?

Less than 70%

70 - 74.99%

$7 vol

North Carolina Democratic Senate primary: Roy Cooper vote percent?

Less than 75%

75 - 79.99%

$6 vol

TX-18 Democratic nominee?

Amanda Edwards

Al Green

$4 vol

VT-AL Republican nominee?

Mark Coester

Gerald Malloy

$2 vol

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

Byron Donalds

Yes

James Fishback

$81,388,918 vol

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Abdul El-Sayed

Yes

Haley Stevens

$31,461,890 vol

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Darline Graham

Yes

Russell Fry

$43,867,323 vol

Who will be the Republican nominee for KY-4?

Ed Gallrein

Yes

Thomas Massie

$4,094,985 vol

Who will be the Republican nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ken Paxton

Yes

John Cornyn

$14,005,162 vol

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?

David Crowley

Yes

Joel Brennan

$25,153,271 vol

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

James Talarico

Yes

Jasmine Crockett

$2,568,765 vol

California Governor primary first place candidate?

Xavier Becerra

Yes

Chad Bianco

$161,230,942 vol

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

At least 10%

Yes

At least 5%

Yes

$6,955,995 vol

Los Angeles mayor matchup

Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass

Yes

Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt

$8,694,320 vol

Who will win California’s top-two primary for governor?

Steve Hilton

Yes

Xavier Becerra

Yes

$370,787,041 vol

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%

Yes

Haley Stevens, 0-3%

$8,831,118 vol

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Graham Platner

Yes

Jared Golden

$30,729,546 vol

Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?

Talarico, 6-9%

Yes

Talarico, 18% and above

$2,933,704 vol

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nominee

Ed Markey

Yes

Seth Moulton

$9,508,654 vol

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Ed Gallrein, 5-10%

Yes

Ed Gallrein, 15-20%

$49,735,308 vol

Texas Senate matchup?

Talarico vs. Paxton

Yes

Talarico vs. Cornyn

$5,515,581 vol

Democratic turnout in the Texas Senate primary?

Above 800,000

Yes

Above 1,000,000

$0 vol

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Troy Jackson

Yes

Dan Kleban

$3,084,560 vol

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Ken Paxton, 20%+

Yes

John Cornyn, 5-10%

$11,528,033 vol

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei

Yes

Matt Pinnell

$108,193 vol

MI-13 Democratic nominee?

Donavan McKinney

Yes

Shri Thanedar

$310,931 vol

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?

Darline Graham, 3-6%

Yes

Ralph Norman, 15-18%

$45,571,816 vol

South Carolina Republican Governor nominee?

Alan Wilson

Yes

Rom Reddy

$4,932,801 vol

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?

Vivek Ramaswamy

Yes

Casey Putsch

$4,917,264 vol

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Yes

Michael Thurmond

$3,539,818 vol

California governor primary: top 3

Becerra, Hilton, Steyer

Yes

Becerra, Steyer, Bianco

$198,536,843 vol

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Rick Jackson

Yes

Burt Jones

$643,166 vol

Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?

Zach Lahn

Yes

Adam Steen

$379,756 vol

Louisiana Republican Senate Nominee

Bill Cassidy

Yes

Sammy Wyatt

$76,304 vol