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  5. Championship Odds

NBA Championship Odds 2026-27

Kalshi's market-implied chance of each NBA team winning the 2026-27 championship. 11 clubs are level at the top of the board on 50%, ahead of all 30 teams priced on the same question.
Live marketUpdated today at 9:02 PM ET
Where these numbers come from: Each figure is the market price of that club’s title contract — the mid-market quote where the book is tight, otherwise the last trade. Prices are not a forecast from Kalshi; they are what traders are paying.
TITLE ODDS

2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first

30 of 30 teams priced.
2026-27 NBA title odds, best price first
TeamTitle odds7dConferenceTrade
1BKN Nets50%0pp2%Trade
2CHA Hornets50%0pp3%Trade
3CHI Bulls50%0pp2%Trade
4LAC Clippers50%0pp1%Trade
5MEM Grizzlies50%0pp1%Trade
6MIL Bucks50%0pp2%Trade
7NO Pelicans50%0pp1%Trade
8PHX Suns50%0pp1%Trade
9SAC Kings50%0pp1%Trade
10UTA Jazz50%0pp90%Trade
11WSH Wizards50%0pp2%Trade
12SA Spurs22%−2pp34%Yes 22¢
13OKC Thunder16%+1pp22%Yes 16¢
14PHI 76ers13%−1pp23%Yes 13¢
15BOS Celtics7%+1pp16%Yes 7¢
16NY Knicks7%−1pp19%Yes 7¢
17HOU Rockets6%−3pp12%Yes 6¢
18MIN Timberwolves6%+1pp10%Yes 6¢
19GS Warriors5%+3pp3%Yes 5¢
20ORL Magic4%0pp3%Trade
21DET Pistons4%−1pp7%Yes 4¢
22LAL Lakers4%−1pp1%Yes 4¢
23TOR Raptors4%−1pp10%Yes 4¢
24CLE Cavaliers3%0pp6%Trade
25POR Trail Blazers3%−1pp4%Yes 4¢
26DEN Nuggets3%−1pp5%Yes 3¢
27ATL Hawks2%−1pp4%Yes 2¢
28DAL Mavericks2%−1pp3%Yes 2¢
29IND Pacers2%−3pp5%Yes 2¢
30MIA Heat2%−1pp5%Yes 2¢
THE SPLIT

Who wins the Finals once they get there?

East against West and each contender’s title price against its conference price. The steeper a club sits on the chart, the likelier the market thinks it is to win a Finals it reaches.
East vs. West45% – 55%The market’s chance the title goes East, against the West: the West is favoured
Half the title chance7 clubsHow many clubs, likeliest first, hold half the market’s title chance between them
Surest in the Finals70%What the market gives the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Finals once they reach it, the most of the 14 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference
2026-27 · As of Nov 8, 2026

NBA conference price vs. title price

Price to win the title →
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%ThunderOklahoma City Thunder22% to win the West16% to win the title70% to win the Finals once thereSpursSan Antonio Spurs34% to win the West22% to win the title63% to win the Finals once thereJazzUtah Jazz90% to win the West50% to win the title56% to win the Finals once thereMinnesota Timberwolves10% to win the West6% to win the title55% to win the Finals once therePhiladelphia 76ers23% to win the East13% to win the title54% to win the Finals once thereCleveland Cavaliers6% to win the East3% to win the title50% to win the Finals once thereDenver Nuggets5% to win the West3% to win the title50% to win the Finals once thereDetroit Pistons7% to win the East4% to win the title50% to win the Finals once thereHouston Rockets12% to win the West6% to win the title46% to win the Finals once thereBoston Celtics16% to win the East7% to win the title41% to win the Finals once thereToronto Raptors10% to win the East4% to win the title35% to win the Finals once thereNew York Knicks19% to win the East7% to win the title34% to win the Finals once therePacersIndiana Pacers5% to win the East2% to win the title30% to win the Finals once thereHeatMiami Heat5% to win the East2% to win the title30% to win the Finals once there
Price to win the conference →
Swipe sideways to see the whole chart →
Surest in the FinalsThe market’s chance each club wins the Finals once it gets there
  1. 1Oklahoma City Thunder70% in the Finals22% to get thereYes 16¢
  2. 2San Antonio Spurs63% in the Finals34% to get thereYes 22¢
  3. 3Utah Jazz56% in the Finals90% to get thereTrade
  4. 4Minnesota Timberwolves55% in the Finals10% to get thereYes 6¢
  5. 5Philadelphia 76ers54% in the Finals23% to get thereYes 13¢
Shakiest in the FinalsContenders the market expects to struggle against the other conference
  1. 1Miami Heat30% in the Finals5% to get thereYes 2¢
  2. 2Indiana Pacers30% in the Finals5% to get thereYes 2¢
  3. 3New York Knicks34% in the Finals19% to get thereYes 7¢
  4. 4Toronto Raptors35% in the Finals10% to get thereYes 4¢
  5. 5Boston Celtics41% in the Finals16% to get thereYes 7¢
METHOD

How these odds work

Every figure on this page is a live Kalshi market price. A contract on the 2026-27 NBA champion pays out at 100¢ if that club wins the title and nothing if it does not, so its price in cents reads directly as the market's implied chance in percent.

The board is ordered by that price, using the exact quote rather than the rounded figure printed in the column — two clubs a hundredth of a point apart would otherwise swap places between refreshes.

The conference column prices a strictly weaker claim: reaching the Finals rather than winning them. The gap between a club’s two numbers is roughly what the market implies about its chance of reaching the Finals and losing — not its chance of losing once it is there, which would be that gap measured against the conference price rather than against 100. The two contracts are also quoted independently, so the difference is an observation about two markets rather than a figure either one states.

A club’s Finals chance is its title price divided by its conference price: of the times the market expects it to reach the Finals, the share it expects the club to win. Only clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference get one, because below that both prices sit a cent or two off the floor and their ratio means nothing. East against West and the half-the-chance count scale every title price down so the league adds to exactly 100% — raw prices add to more, because a longshot cannot trade below a cent.

FAQ

Questions

Who is favourite to win the 2026-27 NBA championship?
11 clubs are level at the top on 50% on Kalshi. That is the market price of their title contract, not a Kalshi forecast — it moves whenever traders disagree with it.
How are these NBA championship odds calculated?
They are not calculated — they are prices. Each club has a contract that pays 100¢ if it wins the title, so the price traders are willing to pay reads directly as an implied percentage. Where the bid and ask are close the page shows the midpoint; otherwise it shows the last trade.
What is the difference between the title and conference columns?
The title column prices winning the championship. The conference column prices only reaching the Finals, which is easier, so it is normally the higher of the two. The difference between them is roughly the market’s implied chance that the club reaches the Finals and loses. It is not the chance of losing the Finals having got there — that would be the difference measured against the conference price, not against 100 — and because the two contracts are quoted independently the difference is an observation about two markets rather than a number either states.
Do these odds add up to 100%?
Close to it, but not exactly, and the board does not normalise them. Each club’s contract is priced independently by traders, and the figures here are not all the same kind of observation — a tight book shows its midpoint, a wide one the last trade — so the column can sum a little above or a little below 100%. The gap is what independent pricing leaves behind, not a fee and not the cost of buying the field.
Is the East or the West favoured to win the 2026-27 NBA title?
The West: Kalshi's prices, scaled to add to 100%, give the Eastern Conference 45% and the Western Conference 55%.
Which NBA contender is likeliest to win the Finals if it gets there?
The Oklahoma City Thunder, of the 14 clubs priced at 5% or more to win their conference: 16% to win the title against 22% to win the West, so the market gives them 70% once they reach the Finals.
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