Will Trump become President and impose large tariffs in his first year?

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Rules summary

If Trump becomes President and the U.S. average weighted tariff is at least 6% by Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.

Timeline and payout

Market openDec 9, 2024 · 10:33pm EST

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout5 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire following either 1) Someone other than Trump being inaugurated as President 2) Trump imposing tariffs that meet the Payout Criterion or 3) no tariffs being imposed by Q4 2025. Otherwise, it closes by Mar 31, 2026 at 11:00am EDT.

SeriesKXLARGETARIFF

EventKXLARGETARIFF

MarketKXLARGETARIFF

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