Who will be Trump's FBI Director?

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By Dec 31, 2026

% Chance

Kash Patel

86%

Kash Patel

86%

Mike Rogers

Andrew Bailey

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Important information: Nominees must be confirmed by the United States Senate (recess appointments do not count).

Rules summary for

Kash Patel

If Kash Patel is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

About

The FBI Director oversees the Federal Bureau of Investigation and reports directly to the Attorney General. Appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, the Director serves a single term of up to 10 years, a limit established to prevent extended tenures like J. Edgar Hoover’s. President-elect Trump has nominated Kash Patel for this role, but he has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. (Source: FBI.gov)

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