Who will win the governorship in New Jersey?

Chance

Democratic Party

Mikie Sherrill

79%

Democratic Party

Mikie Sherrill

79%

Republican Party

Jack Ciattarelli

21%

Republican Party

Jack Ciattarelli

21%

Rules summary

Democratic Party

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Jersey pursuant to the 2025 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from US State Governments.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openDec 9, 2024 · 10:33pm EST

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout1 minute after closing

This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2025 gubernatorial election. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 4, 2026 at 10:00am EST.

SeriesGOVPARTYNJ

EventGOVPARTYNJ-25

MarketGOVPARTYNJ-25-D

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Holders of federal and statewide public office.
Paid campaign staffers on gubernatorial campaigns.
Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of gubernatorial campaigns.
Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
Paid employees of major polling organizations. Any org listed with a 538 star rating here (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/) This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g. the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University’s polling division). The Exchange shall determine which polling organizations constitute “major” and may modify that determination at any time.
Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations. The desks of Fox News, ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ and NBC News
All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice-President of the United States.
All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
All staff of the Office of the President of the United States.
All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States.
All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
Any foreign national. This is defined as an individual who is: (1) not a citizen of the United States and (2) not lawfully admitted for permanent residence (as defined in 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(20)); or a foreign principal, as defined in 22 U.S.C. § 611(b). Section 611(b) defines a foreign principal to include a foreign government or political party; or a partnership, association, corporation, organization, or other combination of persons organized under the laws of a foreign country or whose principal place of business is in a foreign country.