Who will join the Trump Administration?

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The First 100 Days

% Chance

Kari Lake

50%

Kari Lake

50%

Ben Carson

38%

Ben Carson

38%

Avi Berkowitz

40%

Avi Berkowitz

40%

More markets

Rules summary for

Kari Lake

If Kari Lake has been nominated or appointed to the Trump Administration (e.g. as a Cabinet Secretary or policy advisor) before May 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from White House and Trump Transition Team.

Merely being nominated to a position that requires Senate confirmation (e.g. a federal judgeship or a Cabinet Secretary) is sufficient to resolve as Yes. Clarification 11/14/24 3:00 AM ET: Being a part of a non-governmental organization (which the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, may be) is not sufficient to resolve the Contract, even if that organization has some relationship (e.g. is contracted by) with the Trump Administration, if the person in that role is regularly advising the President, or even if that organization receives government financing. However, leading a non-governmental organization *and* holding a Cabinet-level position, or being nominated for one, or holding another position in the White House (e.g. "Senior Policy Advisor") would be sufficient to resolve the Contract.